Research & risk·2 min read
Overfitting: why the best historical strategy may be the least useful
Keep track of how many ideas you tried before celebrating the winning result.
Intermediate
EXPLORE A TOPIC
Crypto research & risk
Learn backtesting basics, drawdown, position sizing and research journaling. Understand evidence limits and connect the concepts through a research path.
A route through these guides
Ask what the evidence supports, what the test leaves out and what would change the conclusion.
Follow the connected lessons ↗ Try the related practice exercise ↗9 guides for curious mindsREAD. REFLECT. TRY IT.
Research & risk·2 min read
Backtesting basics: rules, data and a fair benchmark
Understand the ingredients of a historical simulation before reading its return chart.
Intermediate
Research & risk·2 min read
Drawdown: the part of a return chart you have to live through
Understand peak-to-trough loss and why recovery percentages are asymmetric.
Intermediate
Research & risk·2 min read
Fees and slippage can change a backtest’s conclusion
Make costs visible before evaluating whether a trading rule adds value.
Intermediate
Research & risk·2 min read
Look-ahead bias: when a backtest accidentally sees the future
Check signal timing, data revisions and execution assumptions before trusting a result.
Intermediate
Research & risk·2 min read
Paper trading: useful practice with important limits
Learn a decision process without mistaking simulation for real execution.
Beginner
Research & risk·2 min read
Position sizing and loss limits: practice the arithmetic first
Understand a risk-budget model without assuming a stop order guarantees the planned loss.
Intermediate
Research & risk·2 min read
A research journal that keeps uncertainty visible
Record the question, evidence and next test rather than only the final score.
Beginner
Research & risk·2 min read
Research is not prediction: learn to ask a testable question
Turn a market opinion into a rule, a dataset and a condition that could prove it wrong.
Beginner
↗
A different question might help.
Try a shorter search, or clear the topic and difficulty filters.